Nigeria’s GDP growth rate falls to 3.8%; oil, non-oil sectors slump

By Elizabeth Adegbesan

The National Bureau of Statistics, NBS, said Nigeria’s Gross Domestic Product, GDP, growth rate in real terms declined to 3.89 percent quarter-on-quarter (QoQ) in the first quarter Q1’26 from 4.07 percent in Q4,25.

The Bureau disclosed this today in its GDP report for January 2026.

“Gross Domestic Product (GDP) grew by 3.89 percent (year-on-year) in real terms in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the 3.13 percent recorded in the first quarter of 2025.”

NBS noted that during the quarter under review, the services sector contributed more to the aggregate GDP at 57.73 percent.

The bureau mentioned that the real growth of the oil sector was 2.57 percent in Q1’26, representing a 4.22 percentage point decline from 6.79 percent in the previous quarter.

The decline in growth of the oil sector was as a result of the nation in recording an average daily oil production of 1.55 million barrels per day (mbpd) which was lower than the daily average production of 1.62 mbpd recorded in the same quarter of 2025by 0.06 mbpd and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025 production volume of 1.58 mbpd by 0.03 mbpd.

“The Oil sector contributed 3.92 percent to the total real GDP in Q1’26, down from the figure recorded in the corresponding period of 2025 at 3.97 percent, and up from the preceding quarter, where it contributed 2.87 percent,” NBS added.

Likewise, the non-oil sector recorded a decline in growth rate during the review period.

“The non-oil sector grew by 3.94 percent in real terms during the reference quarter (Q1 2026). This rate was lower than the 3.99 percent recorded in the fourth quarter of 2025.

“This sector was driven in the first quarter of 2026 mainly by Information and Communication (Telecommunications); Agriculture (Crop production); Trade; Manufacturing (Cement); Financial & Insurance (Financial Institutions); Real Estate; Construction; and Transportation and Storage (Road Transport), accounting for positive GDP growth.

“In real terms, the non-oil sector contributed 96.08 percent to the nation’s GDP in the first quarter of 2026, higher than the share recorded in the first quarter of 2025, which was 96.03%, and lower than the fourth quarter of 2025, recorded as 97.13 percent.”

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